CHAPTER III

PATTERNS OF 45 YEARS CYCLE

SCIENCE AND HUMANITIES INNOVATION - - THE GREAT AND MINOR WARS”

 

In the pattern of human activity there is observed a 45 year cycle of innovation, of creativity and the types of change that happen. There is a period of about 20 years where there is science innovation, but while there are numerous "firsts" in science the humanities are "conservative" and do not change.  There is a transition of about 2 to 4 years and then the humanities have numerous experiments and changes, but science becomes stagnant and does not innovate.

This cycle can be represented by the central date of the science innovation period being at (1999 - 45 n) where n is any integer, and presumably predictively even 0 or negative numbers that will project into the future. The humanities innovation centroid dates are represented by (1977 - 45m) where m also is an integer, presumably including 0 or negative numbers.

EQUATIONS 

     Science Innovation Mean date = (1999 - 45 n) ±  8 year variance of 1 s (± 10 yrs 90% probability)

     Humanities central date = (1977 - 45 m) ± 8 year span of 1 s (± 10 yrs 90% probability)

    (The time span is such that 67% of all events fall  ± 8 yrs from mean,  97.5% of the events are  ± 16 yrs, and approximately 90%  ± 10 years)

There is a major war associated with each science period. Associated with the humanities periods are minor or "brush fire" wars.  The major wars are roughly 50-100 times more violent than the minor wars. These  run like a ticking clock back for more than 120 cycles. While I discovered this independently, I have found in the literature an analysis by the late Professor Raymond H. Wheeler, of the University of Kansas, from 1950 going back to 600 BC. and later an extended analysis by Edward R. Dewey going back even farther for 116 cycles which reported a 22.2 year period -later refined by Dewey to 21.98 years, He modifies the amplitudes of

the main cycle with sub cycles of 142 and a less important 57 year cycle.

It is the war cycle which is synchronous with this 45 year pattern which allows us to trace the cycle so far back in time. While the innovations are often poorly recorded, the battles and major wars are relatively well recorded. I reserve the right to maintain the 45 year period I discovered rather than accept the 22 years cycle of Dewey, since with so many cycles the 22.5 year half period versus 22.0 (21.98) would cause a phase shift after 975 years such that the centroid dates would be totally out of phase. They are not, and 45.0 fits better than any other number.

 

The thing that convinced me that there was indeed such a cycle and that the cycle was 45.0 years long was consideration of the Battle of Hastings at 1066 which date I remembered, and then adding 45, 90 and  135 years to that date and looking for major wars near 1111, 1156, and 1201. If your memory of  history is as bad as mine was, you will not remember anything about those dates and I was forced to go take an "Ancient History" book (by Hammond in my case) off the shelf and see if there was anything to the theory. There from 1085-1109 was the First Crusade, at 1145 the Second Crusade, and at 1188 the Third Crusade. BINGO! Taking the equation of 1999 - 45 n and putting in n = 18, 19, 20, and 21 we get expected dates of 1054, 1099, 1144, and 1189 so the 1066 date was a bit late in the cycle and the others now fit the master overall pattern better. At this point rather than write in detail I will present a table of science innovation and humanities innovations, and a table or wars that match the cycles.

 

 

 

TABLE 5      MAJOR WARS WHICH MATCH 45 Year CYCLE

n (1999-45n)   actual observed war (80%  ±  10yrs, 1 s  ± 8 yrs, 2 s  ± 16 yrs )

   mean date (*=a few major Humanities events, minor wars between lines)

0  1999  Prediction 1990- 2010

1  1954             WW II 1938- 1945

2  1909             WW I 1913-1918

3  1864             U.S. Civil War(1860-64), Crimean(54-56), Franco-Prussian

4  1819             U.S. War 1812, Napoleonic Wars ca 1815 (Waterloo)

5  1774             U.S. Rebellion of Colonies (1776-82), Anglo-French

6  1729             Jacobite (1717-1734)

7  1684             Anglo-French (1689-1715)

8  1639             Puritan-Cavalier (1530-53), End Ming (1640)

9  1594             Spanish Armada (1588), Start China Manchu (1583)

10 1548             Loss of Calias (1558)

11 1504             Louis of France w Ferd of Spain (1504)

12 1459             War of Roses -York vs Lancaster (1560-1585)

13 1414             Aigencourt (1422)

14 1368             English withdraw 100 yr war (1360),  China Yuan/ Ming (1368)

15 1324             Bannockborn (1314)

16 1279             Conquest Wales (1282), End Sung (1279)

17 1234             6th Crusade (1227-No war), 7th Crusade (1245),  End Chin (1234)

18 1189             3rd Crusade (1188)

19 1144             2nd Crusade (1145)

20 1099             1st Crusade (1085-1109)

21 1054             Wm at Hastings (1066),  Malcomb III vs Macbeth (1058)

22 1009             Massacre Danes (1002), Sweden retaliation (1003),Mahmud/Persia

23  964             Cyprus from Saracens (964), Crete (961), Sancho Major (975),

                          China end 5 dynasties 959, start Sung 960

24  919             Saceans crushed finally, End T'ang dynasty China (907)

25  874             Danish invasion (866)

26  829             Ellandune-Wales over Mereic (823), Mamon inv. Byzantine (831)

27  784             Charlemagne's campaigns (772-790)

28  739             Tours/Pointiers (732), Ozmiad Dyn end at battle Zab (750)

29  694             Carthage falls Saracens (698), Abd el Malik conq Mecca (692)

30  644             Conquists. Islam (633-659), Truce w Const. & Moawiya (659)

31  604             Chosroes II invades Syria (606), India conquests

32  559             Annihilation Ostrogoths(553),Frank invas(554), 3rd Persian war

33  514             Persian war Anastasius (502),Mt Badon(520), 4 divis Franks(511)

34  469             End W Roman Empire (476), W of Zeno (477), Leo defeated (468)

35  424             Vandals conq Africa(429), (****Attila 441 era anomaly)

36  379             Alaric sacks Rome (410), End 2 dyn CHina (384)

37  334             War of succession Constantine & w Persia(338-361)

38  289             Gothic wars(253-281) End 3 kingdoms period China

 

TABLE 5 CTD.   MAJOR WARS WHICH MATCH 45 Year CYCLE.

        (* Major Humanities events, Minor wars between lines)

n   mean date (- =BC)  events

39   244            Rome wars(220-43), Persian Emp(226), End Han(220)

40  199             Rome Wars Imperial succession(177-212)

41  154                          **exception as no major war this period

42  109              Wars Trajan (101- 116)

43   64               Nero / Calagula (61-88)

 * Christianity ca 30) major humanities event

44  19 AD         China Han interrupted (9-23),Rome (5-15)

45  -26 BC        Caesarian wars ca(50-26 BC, ### all dates below BC ###)

46  -71 (- =BC)  Sulla(88) & Pompey's wars ( -62)

47 –116             African, Asian & Servile wars (119-100)

48 –161             Third Macedonian war(171-167)

49 –206             Second Punic War(218-201), Start Han (206)

50 –251             First Punic War(260-236),

51 –296             Samnite War(294), War w Gauls(282)

52 –341             5 yr war Rome(356), End 30 dyn Egypt(341), Alexander(323)

53 –386             End Egypt 29 Dyn(378)

54 –431            

55 –476             Battle Cumae, end Etruscan sea power (474)

  *    Buddha (483), Con-fu-zu (ca 480)

56 –521             Persia conq Egypt(525),Carthage takes Sardinia(520)

  *    Lao Tze(552-31)      Battle Alalia;Carthage & Etruria vs Phoenicia(535)

57 –566             Begin Persian Empire, Cyrus revolts (550)

  *    Zoraster(588)

58 –611             Fall Ashur, Nineveh (606)

59 –656            

60 –701            

61 –746             Conquests of Saragon II (©Israel 722)

62 –791             End 22 dynasty Egypt (786)

63 –836            

64 -881

65 –926             End 21 dyn Egypt(940), Judah & Israel split(937)

66 – 971             Dyn at Elam (987), Babylon re©start(980)

67 –1016            End Sealand start Basu (1006)

68 –1061                      

69 –1106            End 20 dyn Egypt (1112)

70 –1151            End Shang China (1154), Fall Kasite dyn Babylon (1153)

71 –1196            End 19 Dyn Egypt (1200)

72 – 1241                     

  *    Moshe (Moses) (ca 1260)

73 –1286            Camp of Ramses II (1290), end Mitani (1270)

74Ì- 1331            End 18th Dynasty Egypt (1341)

75 –1376                      

76 -1421

 

       TABLE 5 CTD.   MAJOR WARS WHICH MATCH 45 Year CYCLE

     (major Humanities events, minor wars between lines)

n   mean date (all dates = BC)  events

77 –1466                       Campaigns of Thuthmose II (1465)

78 –1511          

79 –1566                       End 17 Start 18th Dynasty Egypt

80 –1601                       Hittite sack Babylon (1595)

81 –1646                      

82 –1691                       Start Hittite Empire (1680)

83 –1736                       Start 17th Dyn Egypt (1727), Start Kassite Babylon (1736)

84 –1781                       Start 14 Dyn Egypt(1778), Conquests Hammurabi(1792-80),

                                        Start Shang Dynasty China (1766)

85 –1826                      

86 –1871                       End 12th, Start 13th Dyn Egypt 1898

87 –1916                      

88 –1961                      

89 –2006                       End 11th, Start 12th Dyn Egypt(1992), End 3rd dyn Ur(2006)

                                        Isin regains independence (2017)

90 –2051                      

91 –2096                      

92 –2141                       Start 11th Dyn Egypt (2151), Start 5th Dyn Uruk (2121),

                                        End 3rd Dyn ca 2080, start 4th Dyn Uruk (or Erech) (2060)

93 –2186                       End Dyn Akkad (2179)© Start of Hsi Dyn China (2205©2197)

94 –2231                       End 4th Dyn Kish(2230)

95 –2276                      

96 –2321                       Start 4th Dyn Kish (2327)

97 –2366                       End 6th Dyn Egypt (ca 2352), End 3rd Dyn Uruk (Erech),

                                        Conquests of Saragon I of Akkad(2361©45), Ur II(2365)

98 –2411                       End 2nd Start 3rd Dyn Kish (2393)

99 –2456                       End Dyn at Umma (2468)

100 –2501                     Start 3rd end 2nd Dyn Uruk(Erech) (2490) End 1st Ur (2499)

101 –2546                     Start 6 end 5th Dyn Egypt(2523), Start 2nd Dyn Kish (2557)

102 –2591                     Start Dyn Umma (2580), 1st Dyn Ur starts (2596)

103 –2636                     Start 5th end 4th Dyn Egypt (2540),

104 –2681                    

105 –2726                     Start 4th end 3rd Dyn Egypt (2726)

106 –2771                    

107 –2816                     Start 3rd end 2nd Dyn Egypt (2812)

108- 2861                     

109 –2906                    

110 –2951                    

111 –2996                    

112 –3041                     Start second end first Dyn Egypt ca 3043

113 –3086  

114 –3131                     i

115 –3176        

116 –3221                    

117 –3266        

118 –3311                     First Dynasty Egypt Starts  Menes ca 3310 note: fixed span

                                        to end of sixth dyn egypt 949 yrs total known, 21 cycles

119 –3356                    

120 –3401                    

With this analysis an even shorter term series of trends within the 45 year cycle became obvious, and these have been labeled with the terms "Social Climate" or "Attitude of the Times". In German Zeitgeist is used.

 

TABLE 6 ZEITGEIST,   SOCIAL CLIMATE, the ATTITUDES OF THE TIMES, "AURA"

 

Every time has a feeling, a mentality, a zeitgeist, an attitude, an aura, which goes with that period. There is a progression of these climates, of these attitudes which follow one another in the 45 year cycle. Frequently

there is no clear line of demarcation between one attitude and another, it is not necessarily clear where one stops and the other starts. This pattern is presented below for several cycles in the United-States.

 

The zeitgeist, the feeling of the times, transitions from one mood to another, with the majority of people shifting as the few leaders who are ahead of the times attract followers and shift from minority to majority leaders, and thus gain power. Other leaders loose power when they fail to agree with the majority of the population. There are usually distinct leaders associated with each phase in the above pattern, and they gain or loose power as the climate shifts, because they usually are committed to one point of view and rarely are able to shift with the climate.

 

Note that the social reforms of one era become excessive and even abusive in the next era. The social ill that they were originated to combat have usually been well enough suppressed that they are no longer a major problem, so the pendulum swings out of control past what is necessary and becomes abusive until the reform movement itself becomes abusive and has to be controlled.