Futurology
Predicting General Events Through Historical Pattern Analysis
James H. L. Lawler
Prediction Without Prophecy
The word Futurology is used here with some hesitation — other groups use it to mean something somewhat different. Equally, the word Prophecy has been badly abused by those who claim divine pipelines to political power, telling people to do unethical things on behalf of a deity. Fortune tellers and astrologers occupy the other end of the spectrum.
Futurology, as used here, means the prediction of future events in a general way — extrapolating past patterns into the future. It does NOT include detailed prediction for individuals. People who claim that power are psychics, with roughly 99% odds of being frauds. If a person can predict the future in detail, why are they offering tips for petty cash rather than getting rich themselves?
General events, however, can be predicted. They can be described through the use of history and the analysis of patterns of historical events — the 700-year cycle, the 45-year cycle, and the 10-year economic cycle, operating in synchronism.
The Cassandra Problem
Those who ask for the gift of telling the future should beware — it carries a very high price and is a double-edged sword. Cassandra, offered the power of prophecy by a god she then refused, received a second gift: 'But no one will believe you.' The moral: it does not do well to cross the gods. And those who truly see the future see both great pleasure and great pain. Most people want only the hot tip on the horses. That is not what this is.
Three Interlocking Cycles
700-Year Cycle
The rise and fall of civilizations follows a roughly 700-year monolithic cycle. The most recent terminal phase ended around 2012. Understanding this cycle allows prediction of civilizational collapse and renewal.
45-Year Cycle
Wars, periods of scientific innovation, and periods of humanities innovation alternate on a 45-year pattern. Major wars cluster around 1999 + 45n; minor wars around 1977 + 45n. Science and humanities innovation alternate in anti-phase.
10-Year Economic Cycle
The economic 10-year cycle operates in synchronism with the 45-year and 700-year cycles. When all three align — as in 2019–2023 — the result is a major depression of historic severity.
Predictions Made in 1968
The following predictions were made in 1968, derived from the 45-year cycle with corrections for other factors. They are presented here as a matter of record.
~2004–2007
Major War
A major war starting around 2004, ending around 2007, with the flash point in the Middle East — probably Israel — with a second possible ignition point in the Balkans. As of writing, it started early but had not yet reached maximal violence.
~2025
Minor War
A minor war around 2025, derived from the 45-year cycle with corrections for other factors.
2009 / 2019–2023
Economic Cycles
A minor depression in 2009, followed by prosperity in 2015–16, then a major depression from 2019–2023 — as bad as or worse than the Great Depression of 1932. This follows from the 10-year cycle in synchronism with the 45-year cycle and the end of the 700-year monolithic final phase in 2012.
2044 ±10, 2089 ±10…
Future Major Wars
Other major wars are given with a mean date of 1999 + 45n ± 10 years probable variance: 2044 ± 10 yrs, 2089 ± 10 yrs, etc., with corrections for the 10-year and 700-year cycles. Minor wars follow 1977 + 45n ± 10 years probable variance.
1989–2009, 2034–2054…
Science & Humanities Cycles
Periods of science innovation occur from 1989–2009, 2034–2054, 2079–2099, etc. on a 45-year pattern, while the humanities are stagnant and conservative. Science then goes stagnant and humanities innovation rises from ~2012–2032, 2057–2077, 2102–2122, etc.
Population, Competency, and the Malthus Precedent
The Reverend Richard Malthus, circa 1820, predicted the population of the world — and many individual nations — in 1950 within less than 2% error. Demographic projections of today are frequently biased by political motivation, with curves skewed to show maximal probable growth rates in service of particular policy agendas.
The so-called 'population problem' is more accurately a competency problem. If we had five billion competent people, they would find ways to meet their needs. The major correctable factor is education — self-education and social education. The genetic portion is, in the long run, self-correcting.
The 700-year cycle can be broken. But to do so requires rejecting the causes that kill self-motivation, self-responsibility, and ethical understanding. The solution costs almost nothing in cash terms. It must be paid in education.
Why Civilizations Collapse
The collapse of virtually all past civilizations traces to the same root cause: the social loss of ethics — typically triggered by well-intentioned but consequence-blind social engineering. Perfectly good intentions gone astray are socially lethal. Understanding consequences allows us to select or reject actions. Lack of understanding leads to default decisions that have, time after sordid time, produced the same results. Those who do not learn from history are, indeed, doomed to repeat it.