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CHAPTER I
"RISE AND FALL OF THE GREAT EMPIRES OF THE HUMANITY"
After analyzing more than 150 major Civilizations of the world; from pre history at about 9000 BC in the early Paleolithic, and even before that, to the present; It has been discovered that all of them follow a similar pattern of cyclic rise and fall. These cycles have a 700 year period for each cyclic pattern. The cycles can be subdivided into ten sequential phases which follow one another with remarkably little variation in pattern in each of these cycles.
The 700 year cycle; however, alternates between two types: "M" and "F" civilizations. Every other cycle is a "Monolithic" or "M" civilization. These "M" cycles are always relatively well known and accomplish great monumental things. The alternative cycles, between the "M" cycles, are called "Fragmentary" or "F" civilizations and are a repeating lesser shadow of the prior "M" empires. The Fragmentary civilizations frequently are not well known, even obscure, and their history is often very tedious and fragmented into minor petty kings and dynasties. Their history is frequently so fragmented into complex and petty interactions that it is difficult to understand. Thus the term fragmentary of "F" is applied to describe them. As an example of this alternating pattern, the written history of Egypt started circa 3500 BC with a "Fragmentary" cycle which is the "Archaic period" beginning with the First Dynasty. The First Dynasty started with the unification of Egypt by King Narmer from two lesser kingdoms (Upper and Lower Egypt) into one nation. Prior to that we have only a very fragmented list of several rulers of the two separate kingdoms of upper and lower Egypt. This "archaic period" includes the Second Dynasty but ends clearly with the construction of the "Step Pyramid" of king Zoser or Thoser in the Third Dynasty by his Vizier Imhotep. Imhotep not only constructed the first major dressed stone work in history, and founded the engineering basis for all other pyramids, he wrote the world's first major medical text(later worshiped as the god of medicine), and set hieroglyphics into the formal pattern that lasted more than 3000 years. He was perhaps the first real certifiable genius in history.The "Old Kingdom" including the 4th, 5th, and 6th dynasties followed the Archaic period circa 2800-2300 BC. This is the "M" or monolithic cycle including the major pyramid construction with the three best-known "Great Pyramids" at Giza in the 4th dynasty. This high point is followed by a first interregnum where we do not have a complete king list, let alone a coherent history of that time. The anarchy started ca. 2300 BC and lasted about 200 years. The Middle kingdom, centered ca 2100- 1900 BC, follows the first interregnum and we know relatively little information about conditions in this "Fragmentary" period compared to the ""M" civilizations on either side of it, but we at least do have a complete king list and coherent history once more. The "New Kingdom" was founded circa 1560 BC by prince Ahmose at Thebes. This 18th dynasty, and its direct successors, the 19th and 20th, was to last till about 1000 BC. This is a glorious time, for Egypt, the peak, with the Thuthmose, Amenhotep, and the Ramside kings, and includes perhaps 75% of the well-known relics and monuments in Egypt. Following the "year of the Hyena" ca 1000 BC there was a complete social breakdown, including an invasion from the South, and Egypt being ruled by kings from Ethiopia.The Assyrian period from ca 800-300 BC was a bad time for Egypt, the nation was under external rule for most of the time, and it is not a time well remembered by most archaeologists or historians. It is very poorly documented compared to the earlier New Kingdom. Yet there is a complete year-by-year history in this time. Things disintegrated until the conquest of Egypt by Alexander the Great ca 332 BC. The next phase started out with the Ptolmaic dynasty, named for the Macedonian General Ptolmey Soter who founded a dynasty after the death of Alexander the Great ca 323 BC. Domestic home rule ended with Cleopatra (VI). From there Egypt became a province of the Roman Empire and was an integral part of that Greatest of all Empires to that date. Egypt was the "bread basket" of Rome, shipping huge quantities of wheat, and receiving in return manufactured goods. They were gypped mercilessly, and yet they prospered greatly since they did not have the burden of maintaining an Army/ Navy or have fear of external aggression. The end of prosperity came ca 400 AD since when Rome fell, and trade ceased. In the next "F" cycle Egypt was part of the Islamic very fragmented "empire" from ca 650-1200 AD and then later part of the "M" Great Ottoman Turkish Empire from ca 1400-1800 AD. The history of the Ottoman Empire really should be better known in the West. It peaked and growth halted with the loss of the Siege of Vienna, and ended in 1913 when the last Sultan was displaced by Ataturk.The key abstraction from all of the above in addition to the 700 year periodic rise and fall, is to note the alternation of minor and major periods, "Great""M" and relatively obscure "F" cycles. This pattern is universal, and could have been taken from the History of China, Mesopotamia, the Andean Civilizations, or India. A table below show some of these. Thus there is a 700 year major pattern with secondary high- low alternation which extends to an overall 1400 year pattern to account for the "Monolithic" followed by "Fragmentary" cycles. This pattern is world wide, extending to all known civilizations, and can be traced beyond historical records, to a time before writing and thus history existed, into the Chalcolithic, Neolithic, Mesolithic and Paleolithic, ending ca 9000 BC. Each of the "lithic" periods has a recognized "early" and "late" phase, and the "early" corresponds to the "monolithic" pattern while the "late" corresponds to the "fragmentary" part of the overall 1400 year pattern. Thus this pattern has been reported, if not really recognized, for well over a century. The very fact that these 8 distinctions have been made is sufficient reason to class them as different periods. Below are lists of civilizations. These are discussed to further in a CONTINUING section, and in PHASES
TABLE 1 A List of Selected Empires / Civilizations and the Central date of their Periods
TABLE 2 EMPIRES, CULTURES, and CIVILIZATIONS
TABLE 2 ctd. EMPIRES, CULTURES, and CIVILIZATIONS
TABLE 2 ctd 2 EMPIRES, CULTURES, and CIVILIZATIONS
The data in
table 2 above is also found in a chart in the
continuing 700 Year cycle analysis. PLACES WHERE THE PATTERNS DO NOT APPLY Prior to about 9000 BC (11,000 BP, Before Present) the cyclic pattern is not linear, but becomes exponential. After 9000 BC the cultures have constant 700 year period with only minor statistically acceptable variations. Prior to 9000 BC each civilization, or more properly each new culture, as we go further back, lasts longer and longer. This can be traced through the hominid branch of precursors from H. sapiens to about 4,000,000 BP. While that is not the main thesis or topic of this work, in order to make the hominid time pattern completely consistent several "missing links", several intermediate species, had to be postulated and inserted into the known list of hominids. There is one final note before we pass on from this topic. The difference between H. sapiens and H. Cro-Magnon can generally be determined by the skeletal differences, as well as the tools and process present. In the time period 4000-3500 BC there were several fundamental changes in the activities and archeological relics indicating a change in the basic thinking processes of the people of that time. They started to weave using a loom, to make ceramics- pottery, to smelt metals. Writing was invented, and numbers came into use. All of these I place as a real transition from one species or perhaps sub-species to another. The skeletal remains do not show enough variation to define this, but the archeology and results of their activities show a fundamental mental difference, a greatly increased mental ability. Thus I place the earlier people into "Homo proto-sapiens" and the later into "Homo sapiens" -- or perhaps H. sapiens-sapiens -different words to defining different abilities. Thus somewhere in that transition the first "Adam" or first fully modern man appears.
There is a cause-effect type of logic that partially at least explains part of the alternation of "M" and "F" 700 year cycles. In the great or monolithic "M" portion, the empire produces great wealth, an excess. They expends a lot of that on monumental construction. But at the end of the period when the civilization collapses, there is still much accumulated wealth left to cushion the final fall into anarchy. At the end of the F portion there is no such reserve. When things finally go bad, the fall is much worse because of the lack of reserves, and the world enters a true "dark age". The Kings, Emperors, Pharaohs, Wu, Ti, or what ever the rulers call themselves in the M part of the cycle have been energetic, self motivated, and they founded the empire and dynasty. The political rulers in the F portion usually are "slaves to the system", and are pretending to be the successors of the great kings in the prior phase. The reflection can never be as bright as the original - a secondary image is never as great as the primary. If nothing else the secondary rulers fail to excell just because they are not "independent" founding a totally new system, and totally discarding the old. They can not create a better system than the prior M cycle. They look for old solutions, not new ones; they use the tried and proven, (but inadequate) methods and concepts. By so doing they limit themselves to the limits of the past. COUNTERPOINT: MONOLITHIC AND FRAGMENTARY CIVILIZATIONS There is a counter argument here. In theory they could so greatly improve the past system that their periods would be far better. They could possibly correct the flaws that were limiting in the past system. I can answer only by saying that in reality. by observation this did not happen. It appears indeed that the only lesson that history teaches is that we learn nothing from history. I can list no case where the secondary F civilization exceeded the primary prior M civilization. There are a few examples where apparently better legal systems were invented, and where there was a short period of great prosperity, but overall the F periods were far less secure, less prosperous, and less stable than the M periods. With over 150 cases to examine, the rule seems relatively firm.
FOCUS- PAST OR FUTURE Monolithic focuses on the future, F cycles focus on the past. Because the M parts of the 1400 year cycle are much more prosperous than the F cycle. The monuments, and relics left from M cycles also tend to be more grandiose. We have the Pyramids, not just of Egypt, but also Middle America and other places, and other great works from these times. Thus they also are "examples" which later cultures attempt to emulate. Others wish to claim the be the successors to that grandeur, rather than creating and depending only on their own accomplishments. By loking backwards they fail to exceed the past. This focus on the past rather than the future is deadly to initiative, motivation, and creativity. That factor is one we need to keep in mind. While we need to know history, we must not allow it to predetermine our options. We can learn! -There is good reason NOT to repeat the errors of the past- we CAN learn from the errors of others and avoid them. We can learn from the successes of others and repeat those as well. But we must not limit our considerations to what someone else did. By doing that we eliminate all progress. The past can guide us, but must not constrain us. "WAVES" AT circa 300 BC There also is one other item which needs to be brought out at this point, an exception. Alexander the Great and the Ch'in Dynasty 306-207 BC in China was trying to found an empire at a time when all other empires were disintegrating. They both moved against the "current" of history. They both founded a "dynasty" of one ruler. In neither case did the new dynasty with such promise designed to last "forever" last any better than the 1000 year Reich of Hitler. The effect of these two caused "ripples" in the sea of time which took quite a while to damp out, but at this point the major effects all seem to have passed. This is an analysis of human events, and humans are more than a bit unruly... they decline to conform to patterns in general. And in fact, like our children, we rebel at the least possible excuse. Thus I must ask for some "margin for error" an allowable deviation from the patterns which are being presented, to account for the extreme variability of mankind and the "jokers" in the deck from which we are dealing. Men are NOT easily predictable domestic animals.... in fact there is some question as to whether they can be domesticated at all ! It is the very variability of mankind which gives me hope that by knowing of this pattern of rise and fall, we can find the causes, eliminate the bad causes and actions, eliminate the irrational but "attractive" bad assumptions made in the past, and retain the correct mental processes and action; and thus halt the cycle with steady progress eliminating the dark ages, and misery implicit in the anarchy and collapse phases. If we do NOT learn from this analysis, then we are doomed to repeat this cycle and the misery of the down parts. If we DO learn, then we can take control over our own destiny, and perhaps by so doing become a bit more like the gods...the Gods or even become GODS.
FUTUROLOGY (Index ) STUDY OF THE FUTURE OF HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS BASED ON PAST PATTERN INTRODUCTION. CHAPTER I "RISE AND FALL OF THE GREAT EMPIRES- PATTERNS OF 1400 AND 700 YEARS CYCLE "MONOLITHIC AND FRAGMENTARY CIVILIZATIONS" CHAPTER II "PHASES". THE SEQUENCE OF SOCIAL CLIMATES THAT MAKE UP THE CYCLES CHAPTER III
"THE GREAT AND MINOR WARS- PATTERNS OF 45 YEARS CYCLE SCIENCE AND HUMANITIES INNOVATION" CHAPTER IV ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL COMPONENTS OF 700 YEAR CYCLES CHAPTER V "CYCLES OF NATURAL PHENOMENA" CHAPTER VI "CYCLES OF MACRO AND MICRO ECONOMICS" CHAPTER VII "CYCLES OF POLITICAL AND HUMAN EVENTS" CHAPTER VIII "PROJECTION OF CYCLES FOR THE 21 St CENTURY" CHAPTER IX "THE FUTURE OF THE MAN KIND- FROM THE CROMAGNON TO HOMO STELLARIS". CONCLUSION.
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