I am hesitant to use the word Futurology in that there is a magazine using that word and there are other groups using it to mean something somewhat different from what I mean. I also am hesitant to use the word Prophesy in that it also has been abused rather badly by people who do not predict the future but claim that power as a Divine Right, on a par with the Divine Right of Kings. Fortune tellers use mostly this with their palms out for money that are between total frauds, and someone at least giving good general advise (AKA Astrology) which you can write off as amusement tax. The “burn em at the stake crowd” may have had the right idea after all for religious frauds who claim personal pipelines to god (small g deliberate as what real god would ever have to deal through such pipsqueaks) for political power telling people to do unethical things because it is OK with deity. And he represents deity! (He does WHAT? Which is a self proving syllogism that he is at best a liar, and probably much worse).
In my case I mean Futurology in the sense to predict future events in a general way extrapolating past patterns into the future. It does NOT include detailed prediction for individuals. People who do that are psychics. With also 99% odds they are also frauds. I always ask if a person is psychic why did they not know the client was about to spring a trap on them to prove they were a fraud, and if they can predict the future in detail so how come they are offering the tip to ME for petty cash and not getting rich themselves already? It does make one suspicious does it not? And where prophecy is concerned remember what happened to my great (lots of em—I refuse to count – but I could since I have the precise relationship – I changed my mind since the computer will do it for me 84th great grand aunt) grand aunt Cassandra. Ares wanted to bed her. She offered to bed a Greek God (implication also have his child since Gods were notoriously fertile) if he would irrevocably give her the power to foretell the future.
She reneged since he could not take the gift back.
So he gave her a second "gift"…
“But no one will believe you”.
I believe the rest of the story involved her being taken captive and hauled off from Troy to Greece where she was a slave and had to weave cloth and sleep with whom ever her master darn well pleased. As Aesop would say “the moral of the story is”.. “It does not do well to cross the Gods.”
Usually you would say to screw with them—but in this case NOT to screw with them. So she got screwed anyway. Note the reversal also. And there may be a moral there as well but I think I will leave that as “an exercise for the student”.
Thus those who ask for the gift of telling the future should beware as it has a price, a VERY high price in fact, and it is a double-edged sword. You either see great pleasure and great pain … or neither. Do you really want to know what is going to happen? Most people want to get rich quick with a hot tip on the horses or other such get something for nothing schemes like winning the lottery or playing the stock market. If I were a psychic why did I quit playing lottery? That is a specific event and I have personally very good proof about the odds. They are against you.
But that does not mean that general events can not be predicted. They can be described by use of history, and analysis of patterns of historical events.
In 1968 I predicted a major war starting in about 2004 to end about 2007 with the flash point starting in mid east, probably Israel but second possible ignition point of the Balkans. As of this writing we are starting early, but it is not over yet either. It also probably has not reached maximal violence either.
Next is a minor war about 2025. This comes from the 45-year cycle with corrections for other factors.
There should be a minor depression in 2009 followed by prosperity in 2015-16 but real ring dinger of a major Depression 2019-2023. That should actually be as bad as or worse than the “great depression" of 1932. It follows from the 10-year cycle in synchronism with the 45-year cycle and the end of the 700-year monolithic final phase in 2012.
Other MAJOR wars are given with a mean date of 1999 + 45 n ± 10-years probable variance. I.e. 2044 ± 10yrs, 2089 ± 10 yrs etc. and add in corrections for 10 year cycle etc and 700 yr cycle Fragmentary in addition to this .(45 year cycle)
Minor wars are given by 1977 + 45 n ± 10 yrs probable variance.
Periods of science innovation occur from 1989 to 2009 and from 2034 to 2054 and 2079 to 2099 etc. with 45-year pattern, while the humanities are stagnant – conservative.
The science innovation goes stagnant and people turn to humanities innovation from about 2012 to 2032, and again from 2057 to 2077 and again 2102 to 2122 etc.
The zeitgeist in the 45-year cycle will allow even some more precise details in these periods.
The economic 10-year cycle also must be added into the above.
Progressions and demographics such as population projections will also allow a different sort of projection. The Right Reverend Richard Malthus circa 1820 predicted the population of the world (and many individual nations) in 1950 within less than 2% error.
DEMOGRAPHICS versus Demi demon graphics.
The demographic predictions of today are frequently biased by political mis-motivation. For example some politicians who want to tell everyone else what to do so scream “over-population” and show curves skewed to show maximal probable growth rate, so as to justify abortion. Abortion, particularly politically forced abortion, is still murder. The feminist sociopaths yell that they want to control their own bodies. All well and good… but if they DID control their own bodies in the first place, and then they would not need an abortion. What they really want is sanction to use one worse ethical practice ( a level 1A ETHICAL violation) to “correct” for a previous breach of ethics, i.e. irresponsible sexual practice (level 3B self responsibility violation) . But forced abortion is pure murder a 1B level ethical violation. Self designated abortion, like celibacy, is self correcting in the long run. We will let my children and their children's children argue it out with the abortionist's children. Their choice determines long range fitness and mother nature accepts that verdict without comment or argument. So why should I do otherwise? Celibacy is NOT inheritable. Neither is abortion. Neither is homosexuality. Insanity is inheritable, you get it from your kids. Since adoption is today, in most of the world, an available option, as long as there are people who are not only willing but Eager to adopt unwanted babies, and willing to take over the responsibilities for that baby, the irresponsible parent should be socially required to take the 9 month term of responsibility for her past misdemeanor. (The male also needs to be caught and similarly “rewarded” for his part in the process). If there no longer are responsible people willing to assume care, the situation changes. But for the present abortion should NOT be a socially acceptable option and must be recognized - treated as the murder it really is. Should we use FORCE to stop it? No, that is also wrong. Socially it is permissible to make charging of money to perform an abortion a crime (creating of abortion as a value). Otherwise like celibacy, and homosexuality it is self correcting in the long run. If (when) we all had proper values, then these problems would go away.
Repeating from above, forced abortion is pure murder a 1B level ethical violation. China thus is totally off base in its practices. And the punishment for that is predictable. The one child per couple rule was instituted to try to halt overpopulation. But if there are no siblings, then there also are no aunts and uncles, and no extended family structure. Thus they have destroyed the very basis of their whole civilization the family unit. The society has lost its fundamental structural unit, and the ethical breaches resultant will destroy that civilization. I thus fear for world civilization with what will become a powerful but rogue nation, devoid of ethical basis and willing to take by force what it wants, or thinks is needs, since it no loner knows right from wrong. I will leave it to the student to place which of the above major wars will involve the rest of the world in defending itself from the Frankenstein monster which has been created by well meaning fools trying to do social engineering without any notion of the consequences of what they are doing. That also will re-adjust the population curve back to “normal” by the horror of killing and misery on a scale never before seen. I warned you, “great sorrows”.
As an aside the “population problem” was pointed out to the professor by an astute student (yes I WAS listening!) as not really a population problem, but a competency problem. If we had 5 billion COMPETENT people hey would find ways to meet needs. But we have at least 3 Billion people who are not competent to provide their own basic needs. They are parasitic upon the rest for their needs. The competency, or lack thereof, comes from education, or lack thereof, mixed with genetic lack of capability. The major correctable factor is education.
The genetic portion is self-correcting. Smart people have smart children. Stupid people tend to have stupid children. Whether nurture or nature matters little. Smart parents will provide good conditions for their children and thus genes and environment match. Stupid people usually will provide very poor environment for their children reinforcing the stupidity, and those conditions also match. If we simply allow nature to operate, the survival of the fittest will cull out the stupid and the intelligent will prosper, being fit and they will survive.
The asininities of taking wealth from those who create it (by force) and giving it to the un-fit encouraging them to breed is an all time monumental racial anti survival error. We must be “hard hearted” enough to allow nature to operate to cull those who are unfit. As it is now, single parent welfare mothers are actually subsidized to have many babies WITHOUT FAMILY STRUCTURE, as the more children she has the more she is rewarded to provider her own needs into actual mild luxury- in fact she actually has security and comfort!. We actually are operating to cause maximal harm to the race. These children lack family values, i.e. ethics, and thus contribute to crime at an excess rate. They are destructive of society as a whole. We must for our own self preservation punish and thus discourage this antisocial behavior, and encourage social behavior that teaches ethics.
The first step is to get the government (all governments) out of all activities that belong to religion, i.e. CHARITY. The concept of separation of church and state is valid. One must be free to learn and practice ethics. This is virtually synonymous with civilization. (As an aside atheism IS a religion. Government must not allow atheists to use governmental force to “establish” that religion either).
Charity, – helping others for the good one can see in them, is a virtue. FORCED action, (and all governmental actions are forced) are not charity, and thus rob us individually of our opportunity to learn charity. We cease to see the good in others. The very same actions which if done voluntarily when done by force in a governmental environment turn charity into theft !!!
AND THAT CONSEQUENCE IS PREDICTABLE, social loss of ethics will result in predictable horrid social consequences. It leads to rampant crime, terrorism, and suffering. It is the cause of the collapse of virtually all past civilizations. Perfectly good intentions gone astray are socially lethal. Understanding the consequences allows us to select or reject actions. Lack of understanding leads to default decisions that have had- time after sordid time- led to the same horrid results. Those who do not learn from history are, indeed, doomed to repeat history.
It is possible to break from the 700-year cycle. But to do that we must also reject the causes that kill self-motivation, self-responsibility and increased understanding of ethics. The solution costs almost nothing in cash value terms. We must pay in terms of education. We must pay in terms of SELF EDUCATION and in terms of SOCIAL EDUCATION.
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